With the upcoming election fast approaching, a number of races will impact midstream and energy policy overall. The presidential race is a coin-flip in swing states with most polls within the margin of error. Both congressional chambers have functioned with razor thin majorities in recent years, which is likely to continue after Election Day 2024.
Vice President Kamala Harris has largely backed away from prior positions opposing hydraulic fracturing and has shown a desire to continue the energy policy set by President Joe Biden. Former President Donald Trump says he will roll back regulations issued under Biden and revert to his administration’s prior policies.
Regardless of who Americans choose as president, an array of congressional races will set parameters for what the nation’s top executive will be able to implement through legislation.
The U.S. Senate
Cook Political Report shows two senate seats currently held by Democrats as favorable for Republicans, and three Senate seats as a toss up. All Republican seats up for election this year are considered favorable to Republicans. If the GOP flips one of the Democrat-held seats, the Senate would be in a 50-50 deadlock with the Vice President holding the tie-breaking vote.
The Senate race in Montana represents the most likely incumbent seat to see a partisan switch. In that race, Sen. Jon Tester (D) faces challenger Tim Sheehy (R). Tester has been popular among his constituents, but Montana has a strong Republican lean. Recent polls indicate Sheehy is the likely winner. Tester has been an energy friendly Democrat in the Senate. His bipartisan voice would be missed in the Appropriations Committee and the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, which oversees the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.
West Virginia is likely to flip with Sen. Joe Manchin retiring from office. Manchin’s departure means the Energy and Natural Resources Committee will be under new leadership. Manchin, who recently changed his political affiliation to "independent," served as a moderate Democrat who supported fossil fuel interests, particularly coal and natural gas.
Manchin’s seat is likely to be filled by Republican Gov. Jim Justice. Justice has expressed support for an “all-of-the-above” energy policy that ties domestic energy production to national security.
If the partisan makeup of the Senate does flip, Republicans are expected to scrutinize many of the energy tax credits passed by the previous congress and implemented by the Biden administration. If they have the support of the incoming president, tax policy and the methane Waste Emission Charge (WEC) could be changed in a reconciliation vote requiring only a simple majority in the Senate.
The U.S. House of Representatives
Republicans have controlled the House by a slender margin, and all indications are that the margin will remain slim in 2025-26. What’s less clear is which party will have the small majority.
Trump has scheduled recent campaign events in non-competitive states for the presidential election to support GOP candidates in close House races. One such campaign event was with Rep. Ken Calvert R-CA-41), who represents the Coachella Valley in California. Calvert is currently in a polling dead heat with his opponent, Will Rollins.
Republican Reps. Young Kim (R-CA-40), Michelle Steel (R-CA-45), John Duarte (R-CA-13), Mike Garcia (R-CA-27), and David Valadao (R-CA-22) all represent districts in California where Biden won in 2020. Trump will hold another event in New York where similar House members are locked in tight races.
Democrats are also increasing their focus on tight pick-up opportunities in states like Nebraska and Iowa where they have not previously performed well. With national Democrats out-fundraising Republicans, spending is picking up in districts like Texas 15, which is a rematch between incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R) and Michelle Vallejo (D), who lost by 2.8% in 2022 with limited Democratic support.
Leadership changes in the House Energy and Commerce Committee are imminent. Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA-5) must vacate the position due to term limits. Reps. Bob Latta (R-OH-5) and Brett Guthrie (R-KY-2) are likely contenders to be ranking member in the minority or chair in the majority. If Democrats control the House, Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ-6) will likely resume the role as chair.
Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO-6) is also term-limited as chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, which oversees PHMSA. He is seeking a waiver from House Republicans to remain in the leadership position. Rep. Rick Crawford (R-AR-1) has announced his candidacy to chair the committee. If Democrats control the House, Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA-2) will likely chair the committee after serving as ranking member the last two years.
While the power of incumbency remains a key factor in elections, change is a constant — 45 seats are guaranteed to be filled by new members with no incumbent running. Major new legislation will likely require single party control in the White House and both chambers, though a divided government is a likely outcome.
For midstream operators, the 2024 elections represent a critical juncture. The industry’s future will depend on the outcomes of these races, as they will dictate the regulatory and policy frameworks under which the midstream sector operates. Maintaining an understanding of these political dynamics will be essential for companies looking to navigate the evolving energy landscape and capitalize on opportunities for growth and development.
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